श्रवण गर्ग | Shravan Garg

[dc]Is[/dc] there any connection between the RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat’s traditional Vijayadashmi speech delivered in Nagpur and the Bihar assembly poll prospects of the Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA?
Very much and most visibly at that. The tone and tenor of his speech appears to be fine-tuned and crafted for enhancing BJP’s victory prospects. The RSS chief in his apparent “damage control” vocal acrobatics craftily side-stepped the controversial and sensitive issues currently under debate. While lauding the Prime Minister’s performance he simultaneously hailed Dr. Ambedkar’s contribution in safeguarding the interests of the downtrodden. It is a no-brainer that the Nitish-Lalu led “Mahagathbandhan” possibly had already milked maximum political mileage from his earlier contrarian opinions on the country’s stated reservation policy.
Voting for the third phase of Bihar elections took place on Wednesday — thus completing over fifty per cent of the 243 seats under contest. The BJP’s nervousness is palpable as it feels increasingly concerned and this is so on the back of speculation of a likely “NDA adverse” scenario in Bihar. The BJP leadership has repeatedly rubbished such speculation, dubbing it as “media manipulated” and “engineered” by forces inimical to Prime Minister Narendra Mod who spearheads the BJP election campaign. It is noteworthy that the NDA has not declared any Chief Ministerial candidate.
The RSS chief in his, not too catchy headline-making speech, deliberately or otherwise, chose to side-step three important issues. This certainly would not have gone unnoticed by the Sangh-watchers.
Firstly, Bhagwat not reiterating his much talked about views on the present reservation policy despite the heated debates, in Gorakhpur and earlier via an interview in the Sangh’s mouthpiece “Organiser”. On the contrary, Bhagwat began his 55-minute Vijayadashami address invoking the Dalit icon B.R. Ambedkar and crediting him for instituting Constitutional provisions aimed at removing social and economic inequalities. The RSS chief thus about-turned on his earlier suggestion calling for a review of the reservation policy. He had stated then “…we should have an integral approach of welfare for all” indirectly implying that the aspirations of the upper castes should not be ignored.
Secondly, the RSS chief’s decision to distance himself from touching – even on the surface – the much talked-about and debated subject of’ “growing communal intolerance’’ in the country. This is an issue which has invited the wrath from all quarters including the august office of the President. A number of eminent writers and others have even returned their prestigious awards to protest.
Lastly, Bhagwat’s silent “refusal” to publicly express views on the incidents relating to the lynching of Mohammad Akhlaq in Dadri, Uttar Pradesh, and the murder of a two-year-old boy and his 11-month-old sister, belonging to a Dalit family — after their home was set on fire in Faridabad in Haryana. Both these incidents have generated a lot of political heat and a number of senior functionaries of the BJP have issued controversial statements. The RSS chief, however, chose to write all this off describing them as “small episodes that get exaggerated and cannot damage Hindu culture and the country will always stand as one.”
It is also noteworthy that Mohan Bhagwat showered praise and gave kudos to the Modi Government saying that “India’s image in the world has improved. The situation within India has improved. There was an environment of disappointment two years ago, but now there is an atmosphere of hope and enthusiasm.’’
Most probably in light of the RSS chief’s fresh stand in his address and emboldened by the backtracking, the Prime Minister also declared in Bihar, that as long as he was at the helm nobody could touch the Constitutional guarantee of reservations for the poor and the downtrodden. It was perhaps for the first time that Narendra Modi decided to make such a scathing attack against the critics of the reservation policy. He had already endorsed the President’s concerns on increasing communal intolerance in the country.
While the political pundits are busy debating whether Bhagwat’s Vijayadashmi greetings would make any significant contributions to BJP’s prospects in Bihar, the president of the BJP, Amit Shah, is extremely upbeat and confident about the Party’s victory. Addressing an election rally in Aarah, Shah detailed the timeline of Nitish Kumar’s exit from office. He said “By 10 AM – on November 8, the day of vote counting, we will get the lead. By noon, we will get a majority. By 2 PM, Nitish will leave the Chief Minister’s house for the last time, to tender his resignation to the Governor.”
Shah’s reasons for this buoyant mood and solid confidence are said to be based on some hard calculations. These give the Party a tally of 150 seats–around 40 seats from the first two phases of 81 seats, and 90 from the third and fourth phases, out of a total of 105 seats; and, 25 in the last phase of 57 seats. On the other hand, the ‘’Mahagathbandhan” is equally over-confident of its victory prospects and said to be busy working hard on enhancing its victory margin.
It remains anybody’s guess as to what will happen if Amit Shah’s prediction falls short, even marginally, of his highly-placed dreams? Who would the party President then, publicly or privately, blame for a dismal outcome? On the other hand, what will be the event train, within and without the BJP, if the Modi-Shah duo defeating all odds, succeeds in taking the NDA to the top of the world?
The Bihar verdict, either way, and notwithstanding the encouraging speech made by the RSS chief on Vijayadashami, shall have rewritten the chapter of relationships between the Sangh Parivar and the BJP.

[dc]If[/dc] the present and continuing phase of a deteriorating relationship between the two countries is any indication, Nepal’s love for India or vice-versa can only plummet further. Notwithstanding the desire expressed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi that India was committed to strengthening the traditional bonds of friendship and kinship with the people of Nepal, Kathmandu appears reluctant to accommodate New Delhi’s concerns about the provisions of the New Constitution adopted by the Himalayan country. It appears that something seems to have gone seriously wrong with the handling of the situation from the Indian side also and the same has provided Nepal with an excuse to continue with its stand on addressing the concerns of people in its Terai region.
What has given the situation a new twist is the growing closeness between Kathmandu and Beijing, amidst speculation that newly-elected Nepalese Prime Minister K.P.Sharma Oli, may buoy Nepal’s relationship with China to new levels despite the Indian Prime Minister’s best efforts to strengthen relationship bonds with it.
There is a growing unease between the two countries ever since the agitation started by the people of Indian origin in the Terai region of the Southern part of Nepal, thus hitting the supplies of essential commodities, particularly petroleum products from India.
It is being said that the citizenship laws mentioned in the promulgated new Constitution perpetuate the problem of statelessness and thus fail to address the fundamental hurdle to economic development that bars nearly four million Nepalis from engaging in every day affairs such as buying and selling land, sitting for a higher-level examinations, accessing financial services, registering to vote or even acquiring something as basic as mobile phone sim-card.
The present ‘silent’ deadlock between the two countries is unlikely to break until the current blockade of Indian checkpoints, leading to shortages of supplies to Nepal, does not end. Secondly, the Nepali leadership should agree to enlarge the ownership of the new Constitution and increase its legitimacy. It was in this context that during his meeting with the External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj in New Delhi, the visiting Deputy Prime Minister of Nepal Kamal Thapa was told that his Government should ‘credibly’ address the challenges faced by his country, including in the Terai region at the earliest.
That New Delhi attached great importance to India’s relationship with Nepal was evident from the fact that soon after taking over as Prime Minister, Modi had last November, paid a much-hyped visit to Kathmandu. India had also played a key role as a mediator in bringing together all the Nepalese factions for drawing a constitution that was acceptable to all. Which, in fact, did not happen. The framing of the Constitution was the result of a 12-point agreement mediated by India wherein it brought in the Maoists and seven pro-democracy parties to become signatories.
As was feared, the new Constitution created widespread tensions in Nepal, particularly in the regions dominated by the Madhesis and the Tharus. While the Madhesis are concentrated in the eastern and central Terai regions, the Tharus are concentrated in far western Terai. Their objection to the new Constitution—related to new federal boundaries and other aspects, which they claim ‘‘abrogate previous commitments made to their communities and create ‘second class’ citizens.”
As per the Human Rights Watch Report, regarding the protests and police crackdowns in the Terai region, protests spread in August and deadly violence has continued since the promulgation of the Constitution on September 20. Much of the Terai, which is home to half of Nepal’s population, remained at a near standstill due to these strikes and unrest. Madhesi activists and leaders sat on a dharna situated on ‘no-man’s land’ between India and Nepal, blocking the check-posts. The Indian government pleaded that in view of this blockade and security reasons, in would not be possible to send transporters to Nepal. On the other hand, Nepali leaders charged that the ‘blockade’ would not have been possible without New Delhi’s tacit approval. It was owing to this blockade that thousands of trucks from India got stranded at the border with Nepal.
According to reports, approximately 45 people were killed in the Terai region during August and September in these violent protests, staged over the provisions of the new Constitution. ”…in all the five districts Human Rights Watch visited heard stories of police breaking into homes to beat the occupants, including women and elderly people; police using racial insults during violent incidents or threatening to kill members of the public; and police arbitrarily beating passers-by and harassing villagers belonging to communities which are seen as opposing the new Constitution.”
What will ultimately happen to Indo-Nepal’s long-term relationship? There are already indications that the new Nepali Prime Minister Oli is not in favour of granting concessions to Madhesis as they are being considered pro-India. Oli’s anti-India stand has obviously brought him close to China and Pakistan. The Chairman of the High level Political Coordination Committee, Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda is widely known for his pro-China and anti-India leanings. The Indian Ambassador to Nepal Ranjit Rae, had late last month expressed concerns about the growing anti-India sentiments in Nepal. He had said that “we are concerned about the activities of burning India’s national flag and Prime Minister’s effigies”
Therefore, it cannot be without a reason that Oli sent his deputy to pay India a visit, to gauge first-hand, the mood of the Indian leadership. India, on its part, has become used to the behaviour of the Nepalese leadership, over the years, welcoming or opposing New Delhi’s “point of view on the basis of whether it suits or does not suit them.’’
It therefore appears unlikely that anything encouraging will come out from Thapa’s first overseas visit, to India, after taking over as Nepal’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister.

[dc]Why[/dc] did that most infamous and devastating gas tragedy take place in Bhopal, the capital city of Madhya Pradesh, in December 1984? Who all were actually responsible for it? Why has it happened again in Petlawad after thirty-one years? Who are the real culprits for it this time?
Bhopal gas tragedy, as it has registered itself in the history of man-made tragedies of the world, had taken place at the pesticide plant of the multi-national Union Carbide of India and had claimed precious lives of four thousand innocent people. The tragedy of Petlawad, tehsil of Jhabua district, MP, has reportedly claimed around a hundred lives. Over two lakh victims who survived the Bhopal disaster, even after three decades, are still struggling with their emotional trauma and physical injuries. There is no information about the severely injured survivors of the blast, in what allegedly was a warehouse of illegally stored explosives at Petlawad.
Warren Anderson, the influential American chief of the multi-national company and described as the man responsible for the tragedy, escaped to America enjoying multi-fold protection at the hands of powers that be at that time in Bhopal and Delhi and could not be brought back to India for any trial. Similarly, the Police force of Madhya Pradesh, even after over three weeks, continues to search Rajendra Kanswa, the man behind the explosions.
One does not know if Kanswa is already dead but for the reasons best known to people engaged in the investigation, his search will continue, at least till the tribals’ anger has subsided. We don’t have answers to the questions which the Bhopal gas tragedy raised. In the same fashion we will also never know the answers to the blasts in Petlawad. Riding on the sympathy wave generated in the wake of Mrs. Indira Gandhi’s brutal assassination, the Congress party then led by Arjun Singh as Chief Minister, had successfully won the Assembly elections held on the fringes of the tragedy.
Similar has been the case with the lucky Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan. Belying all speculation and caring two hoots for the infamous Vyapam scandal, the Bharatiya Janata Party under his leadership, has kept winning by-poll after by-poll, including the recently held civic body elections. Petlawad or no Petlawad, luck may continue to favor Shivraj in Jhabua-Ratlam Lok Sabha and Dewas Assembly by-polls. Human tragedies have ceased to affect election results simply because the strategies of political manipulations successfully overpower voters’ emotional injuries.
It was the leakage of MIC from the Union Carbide plant at Bhopal which led to the world’s biggest industrial disaster. At the time of the commissioning of the plant, it was innocently stated that the plant would manufacture pesticides. Dr.M.N.Buch, noted environmentalist and the architect of modern Bhopal said that nothing was disclosed about the manufacturing process or about the likely adverse or hazardous effects of the material/s to be used. Dr. Buch was the then Secretary, Housing and Environment when the plant expansion was proposed. He had even suggested that such a potentially hazardous chemical plant should be set up only in a specially earmarked area to protect the population from any adverse effects. Union Carbide did not follow those directives and the then Chief Minister in 1980 even regularized the expansion. Dr. Buch was posted in Delhi at that time. The tragedy was there for the world to witness — in December 1984. Now the debris of the plant is said to be planned to be transported and buried at Pithampur, a part of another tribal district of Dhar.
What will be the outcome of the Commission of Inquiry instituted to go into the reasons of the Petlawad tragedy? Will it be able to finish its task before the people have erased the tragedy from their memory? Would the government make its findings public and take action against those found guilty? The experiences of the past with successive governments merits a decisive and an emphatic ‘No’.
The state Government removed the SP of Jhabua district Abid Khan on charges that police did not take seriously the complaints regarding violation of rules by the explosives dealers. The government will never offer any explanation as to the recovery of illegally stored explosives from various places following the tragedy at Petlawad. And what about the fact that the dealers of ‘deaths’ enjoying political and administrative patronage have been fearlessly carrying out their smuggling business of explosives to benefit the mining mafia and others? The high count of casualties at Petlawad has been attributed to the explosion of a large number of gelatine sticks.
There can be no denying the fact that the stakes are very high in the legal-illegal nexus of this business of explosives, firecrackers, etc. The stake-holders include manufacturers, businessmen, politician-facilitators, transporters and users. Therefore, there has never been any strict control over the production, storage and sales of such items. Multi-departmental supervision and control leads to no direct responsibility. Despite strict safety guidelines for the handling, storage and usage of such items, no norms are actually followed. There are no examples of any deterrent action that has been taken even when violation of rules is found to be rampant as has been the case at Petlawad. The business of explosives has not flourished overnight. As per reports appearing in the aftermath of Petlawad, gelatin sticks are the most commonly used explosives and are easily available. The main accused Rajendra Kanswa was allegedly storing explosives in his rented godown for the last ten years. His father and brother were also said to be engaged in the business of blasting. The godown was taken for storing seeds and fertilizers but was being utilized for the illegal storage of explosives also. All the activities were being conducted in residential-cum-commercial complex flouting all the rules and regulations. Kanswa had obtained license from the Petroleum and Explosives Safety Organization (PESO) “even though he was under constant surveillance for smuggling of explosives for many years.”
Will the ordering of an SIT or a judicial inquiry by the Chief Minister provide any answer to this man-made tragedy? If Kanswa is still alive, will he ever be arrested and brought to book? No high-profile culprit actually responsible for Bhopal gas tragedy has ever faced punishment and it appears unlikely that anyone will be penalized for Petlawad. The all powerful mining mafia would not let it happen.

[dc]‘Netaji’[/dc] has done it again and not quite unexpectedly. It was in the offing for long, ever since Mulayam Singh declined to appear in the Patna rally of the “grand alliance” or the Maha-Gathbandhan, as it is called — between the JD (U), the RJD, the Congress and his Samajwadi Party. It seems the SP supremo is once again repeating his tried and successfully tested tactics with the same precision, that he had earlier staged against the firebrand Trinamool Congress leader and West Bengal Chief Minister — Ms. Mamata Banerjee. Of course, the context and related pressures were different then as seen from Delhi’s end. The “durbars” in Delhi, in the meantime, have certainly changed but not the contents of important files, especially those in the possession of the CBI and such like agencies.
Sadly, no lessons seem to have been learnt by the other leaders from the Mamata episode. This time the Chief Minister of Mamata’s bordering State is the target. While both very smart politicians, Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav, may have known or perhaps sensed what was likely to emerge from Lucknow, they failed to pre-empt the damage. Janata Parivar appears to be jittery and on the verge of a collapse, before even taking some elementary concrete shape. The damage caused to the sky-rocketing confidence of Nitish Kumar in his “super-package for Modi-package” bid is going to be irreparable. The reasons offered by Mulayam Singh for pulling out from the grand alliance, and to go alone in Bihar, do not seem convincing. There is surely more than what meets the eye. It has certainly not gone unnoticed that there have been meetings between the BJP President Amit Shah and the SP leader Ram Gopal Yadav before the SP announcing its decision to quit the alliance.
The assembly polls of the country’s largest State Uttar Pradesh are scheduled to be held sometime in 2017. The Bihar poll results will have a direct bearing in turn on Uttar Pradesh and this reality has not escaped any of the players involved in the political game. The SP leader seems to still be nursing a grudge of not becoming what Narendra Modi became — the Prime Minister of India. The SP supremo is said to have stated recently that while he became the Defence Minister he narrowly missed the post of Prime Minister. Therefore it can be well understood that Mulayam has much greater stakes in Uttar Pradesh than winning or losing a few seats in Bihar. It must have been a part of his long-term strategy, envisioning that if the SP is not a part of the Nitish-Lalu-Sonia alliance, and yet contests the polls in Bihar, there will be division of Yadav and backward class votes; which will only benefit the BJP. Little surprise then that Mulayam’s party has decided to put up candidates in all 243 constituencies of Bihar. The party had contested on only 146 seats in the 2010 polls but failed to bag even a single seat.
If the last Lok Sabha poll results are any evidence of the Samajwadi Party’s standing in UP, Mulayam is faced with a steep uphill task — to fulfill his stated ambition“…the forth coming election is crucial and we want that the SP forms the government again.” But with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) maintaining its vote bank intact and having also consolidated its position further, backed by the weaknesses of Akhilesh Yadav’s unpopular governance, dangers are rife and word spread, that Mulayam is only indirectly helping the BJP come to power in Bihar. This may cost the SP dearly on account of its minority vote bank in UP. The All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul leader Asaduddin Owaisi has already announced his party’s decision to contest the assembly elections in both Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. This may further come to the aid of the NDA, as is being alleged.
Confusing the Bihar poll scene even further, the Left parties have also ​in the meantime, announced that they were joining hands to fight the Bihar polls against the BJP-led NDA and also the Nitish Kumar-led grand alliance of the JD(U) – RJD-Congress. The alliance of the six left parties has vowed to defeat both. On the other hand, allegations have already surfaced that Trinamool Congress in West Bengal is speaking in the same voice as the BJP.
​It is not only a question of Mulayam Singh’s contesting alone in Bihar, exiting the grand-alliance on the flimsy pretexts of having being given only five seats and of Nitish Kumar inviting Sonia Gandhi to the Patna rally. It goes without saying that Mulayam Singh had during the UPA regime established a cozy relationship with Delhi similar to what is being witnessed today with regard to the Modi Government.​Therefore, the larger question from the debate that emerges is what would ultimately happen to the cause of effecting unity among all the opposition parties for which the Bihar polls had presented an opportunity?
Mulayam Singh can well afford taking the calculated risk of walking out of the alliance in Bihar, for the simple reason that Nitish Kumar does not have a major political strength of his own nor any solid vote bank to support, much less, dictate terms. Therefore, after the break-up of the alliance between the JD(U) and the NDA, Nitish Kumar had to reach out to Lalu Yadav for help, despite knowing fully well that RJD over the years had not only lost support among the masses but also had become unpopular. Nitish Kumar in desperation also sought support from Arvind Kejriwal but the Chief Minister of Bihar could ill-afford taking any risk of contesting alone as was done by the Aam Aadmi Party leader in Delhi. Lastly, it would remain to be seen whether the RJD supporters do ultimately vote for the JD (U) candidates or whether they go with the contestants that will be put up by Mulayam Singh’s party. Therefore, in the prevailing situation post- Mulayam Singh Yadav’s​ break up with Nitish, it would be a miracle if the JD(U) – RJD-Congress combine can even attempt to force the NDA to compromise with a hung assembly. Mulayam Singh has done his job. How would Nitish retaliate, remains to be seen.

[dc]Gujarat[/dc] is unlikely be the same again as it was under the unchallenged leadership of Narendra Modi as State’s Chief Minister for over a decade. The recent incidents of agitation and subsequent violence invites one to ponder if the period under Modi’s rule was unreal or what is being witnessed at present is temporary and not in tune with Gujarat’s known and established character, and will disappear with the passage of time.
There is no denying the fact that ,deliberate or otherwise, it was either a miscalculation or an utter failure on the part of Chief Minister Anandiben Patel — first to anticipate, and later deal with the situation when it came to a head.
Much to the delight of the opponents of Modi, from within and without, the untimely arrival of this crisis in his home State, if not controlled, may weaken both strength and hold of the Prime Minister on the Government and the Party. It was not without any reason that the crisis in Gujarat is now being discussed at the highest level in New Delhi and accorded top priority as the agenda to be addressed without any delay. Murmuring has already started among the allies of the NDA with Shiv Sena taking the lead, describing Hardik Patel the 22 year old leader of the Patels as ‘a hero of Gujarat.’ Hardik, in return, heaped praise on the late Bal Thackeray.
If the likes of Nitish Kumar, the Bihar Chief Minister, are happy with the developments in Gujarat, the reason can well be understood as Bihar is faced with elections for the State Assembly, and more than anybody else, the stakes for the BJP-RSS combine in general, and Modi in particular, are very high. Modi can not consider visiting Gujarat on any pretext in the given situation. Even a visit to his parent state by the National President of the BJP and a proven trouble shooter and confidant of the Prime Minister, Amit Shah, may not have helped in bringing about the desired change in situation. On the contrary, while Amit Shah was on his way to Gujarat, Hardik Patel was thundering before a gathering of Gujjar leaders in East Delhi declaring that :”I will make sure that we, the descendants of Sardar Patel, unite all communities agitating for OBC status and present a national front.”
The threat issued in Hindi by Hardik Patel on August 25 at Ahmedabad’s GMDC ground: “If we can make them the Prime Minister and the Chief Minister, we can also send Narendra Modi and Anandiben back to the railway station to sell tea,” exhibits the kind of bitterness which has developed between the BJP and its one-time most trusted Patel-Patidar vote bank.
Hardik Patel’s fearless outburst indicates that what was buried beneath the ‘no – nonsense’ rule of Modi’s twelve year rule is slowly and gradually surfacing in his physical absence. Not only this, Modi’s emotional address to his people in Gujarati language to maintain calm also failed to evoke desired response and violence continued. This is also evident from the fact that Patel – Patidar community’s agitation though at a low scale in manifestation was very much present even during Modi’s tenure as Chief Minister.
The question therefore is — where did Modi go wrong in Gujarat if it has been finally ruled out that dissidents within the ruling party, who had been left marginalised from getting any share in the power, were actually behind the scenes in helping the agitators? Did Modi go wrong in deciding upon his successor in Gujarat and committed the same error of judgement as in case of selecting the candidate for the post of Chief Minister in Delhi? KiranBedi and Anandiben both delivered only disappointment to Modi causing a dent to his established image of a person always taking a right decision. And again, If the Gujarat agitation is not to be viewed as a silent revolt against her leadership then where did Anandiben make the mistake which fuelled this agitation ? About thirty-seven per cent (44) out of 120 party MLAs in the 182-member State Assembly hail from the Patel and Patidar community; there are eight Patel ministers in the cabinet as also eight Patel Lok Sabha members from Gujarat.
It is being talked about that candidates for the Assembly polls from the Patel–Patidar community were allegedly picked on the basis of their personal loyalty and it was the Modi-wave which got them elected. They may not be representing the community in the true sense and are likely to lose polls if given tickets again. Had this not been the case, the residence of Minister of State for Home, himself a Patel, would not have come under attack at the hands of agitators after the outbreak of violence. The Prime Minister’s fire-fighting brigade is said to have been assigned with the task of isolating the well–meaning Patels from Hardik’s aura of influence. But what about the elaborate arrangements (Sewa Kendras) made all along the routes leading to Ahmedabad to take care of participants’ food and shelter requirements? Who would have done all that? Agitators’ number for the rally kept increasing before swelling into lakhs in Ahmedabad and it should not have gone unnoticed. And lastly, if the Chief Minister claims that she had not issued any order for the police lathi-charge then who would have actually done so? It was the police lathi-charge which led to large scale violence resulting in calling of the army to control the situation.
Which way would the agitation now go and what price would it extract before making the people of Gujarat feel comfortable? This cannot be predicted as things have not fully unfolded, as yet. But what is most certain is that Modi will have to tie the loose ends in Gujarat first, before decisively reaching out to voters in Bihar.